Today, a friend asked me: "Out of everyone you know, who has highest potential to change the world?"
My reply, slightly edited for clarity:
I don’t think this framing appropriately accounts for complexity.
Each person is a component of a complex system. Interactions between components are poorly understood and difficult to model.
I could answer something like "who do I think is most likely to become famous, or rich?"
But those are much narrower questions.